Understanding Covid-19’s emerging truths
By Edema Tosan
As the days go by, several emerging truths have come to the fore on the Covid-19 pandemic. A lot has been said about where and when the plague started, with fingers pointing in the direction of bats in Chinese open markets, China’s rogue laboratories, the United States, North Korea and the Russian military’s secret programmes.
But more resonantly is the fact that there are lots of projected China-linked accusations and connotations with practically no real meat on the bone – that is, having no direct proof or evidence. Yes! The Chinese clearly have some degree of culpability in the spread of the pandemic; such as issues of no transparency, obvious cover-up, complacency, weak and delayed response to tackle the scourge at its earliest onset; and of course, the normal communist governmental secrecy mentality.
Regardless of the above however; the probable logical reason as to why Covid-19 seems to be linked with China is simply understated. Most people don’t think about the most culpable reason why the Covid-19 outbreaks happened or could have originated from China – OVERPOPULATTION. There are close to 8.5 billion people in this planet, about 1.5 reside in 55 nations of Africa compared to about 1.5 billion in China alone. If an invasive alien force wants to invade the earth; the simple logic of will propel such a force into moving to take care of China and its 1.5 billion people, and then India’s 1.4 billion next. The simple rationale here is that overpopulation equates societal chaos and miscues which could then trigger off even more weak links and then translate to a path of least resistance and the best route to ensuring strategic devastation and amplifying same.
Furthermore, it is now apparent that we failed awfully in responding to the enormity of the challenge in some countries and the invader (Covid-19) is maximizing its introduction, production and reproduction in our world. Some of the access points in our view are overpopulated China and socio-economical overpopulated homes (mostly black and brown families with 2-3 generations living under one roof). As it was then, Covid-19 continues probing and poking holes in the chink in our armour, given that a chain is only as strong as its weakest link. The honest and absolute truth is that Covid-19 is a moving target that our so-called advance science is still figuring out and it’s also compounded by our regional and political misinformation challenges, deliberate misdirection or both.
Let us review some of these moving target facts as we know them today: Covid-19 is by far more contagious and lethal than the seasonal flu and some people are getting reinfected, doubly, and possibly triply by Covid-19 within this season. If the above is proven to be true this only confirms that the much anticipated herd immunity might not be best achieved until 1-3 covid-19 seasonal exposures. Dr Clay Ackerly, an internist at Foxhall Washington DC, for example, recently confirmed that one of his patients had the covid-19 again within 3-4months from the patient’s first go around with Covid-19.
There are other confirmed cases in Spain, South Africa, Britain, Italy and South Korea about patients being re-infected at least twice with Covid-19 within 3-6months. Professor Lawrence Boston, a director at the W.H.O Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law, Georgetown University and founding O’Neill Chair in Global Health Law at Georgetown and other experts suggest that a new situation of normalcy won’t be achievable till the summer of 2022-2023 as a result of Covid-19’s evolving devastation and its accompanying ramifications. Their summations are similar to previous Covid-19 family characteristic outbreak patterns and behaviours. And yes, it is not impossible from permutations being laid out today that Covid-19 or Coronavirus already has a family with children, aunts and cousins that might be more devastating than Covid-19 itself when these other Covid-19 relatives figure out or attain transmutation from their possible animal hosts to humans – SCARY!!!
Other confirmed facts about Covid-19 are that for every four people in a household/close unit, it behooves us to take the approach that there is a chance of a 1:4 ratio exposure to Covid-19 already and 1:4 might be a Covid-19 transmitter. Covid-19 signs and symptoms take 1-3 weeks for full blown symptoms’ manifestation (symptomatic and asymptomatic), averages 2-6 weeks to fully recover and become asymptomatic with a possible 5-10% estimated re-infection rate. Hence, it is taking about 4-6weeks to comprehend Covid-19 spikes patterns when recommended social distancing, correct use of Personal Protective Equipment, PPEs, hand washing and isolation, e.t.c aren’t simply adhered to mostly due to human stupidity-proclivity.
The French doctor, Danielle de Luca, who is head of the Neonatal Critical Care Hospital, Antoine-Beclere Data Research tested neonatal blood and placenta blood few hours post birth and confirmed that Covid-19 can be transmitted during pregnancy from mother to neonatal, though the baby survived after initially exhibiting musculoskeletal and neurological abnormalities. Some people may say thank God, the baby is still alive as of today; but the bigger picture should be emphasised as it has to do with all of us doing the right thing going forward because if more neonates gets infected we might end up with a ZIKA-like outbreaks worst case scenario.
What we now comprehend about Covid-19 in terms of pattern tracking is that there is a first wave – simply, a surprise attack. Any second wave seems to be due to our noncompliance and complacency. As for a third wave, it is streaming along the path of more ignorance and some stupidity. A fourth wave, if triggered would also only soar on more obvious stupidity and moronic behaviour. Other established evolving Covid-19 facts relate to its airborne – both aerosol and droplet transmission capabilities. Covid-19’s devastating trajectory seems to multiply amongst patients with co-morbidities such as asthma, Coronary Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Congestive Heart Failure, obesity, diabetes and clotting disease.
In our view also, America is one of the countries with the most Covid-19 infection and related deaths because America is equally one of top seven countries worldwide with obesity prevalence. The other most obese countries follow: China, India, Russia, Brazil, Mexico and Germany. Most obese countries also correlate 30-40% of these countries in which the children and adult populations are obese. Part of the explanation is simple: if you are obese, you probably have hypertension, asthma, diabetes, congestive heart disease, e.t.c. We already established that connections between Covid-19 and co-morbidities are prevalent. The ultimate tragedy is the fact that the above seven countries make up over 55% of the total number of Covid-19 infection and mortality rate combined, worldwide.
The complete science on elderly, children, younger and older adults Covid-19 exposure and outcomes are still evolving. Covid-19 also seems to be exposing our socio-economical disparity, forcing us to think about family units’ lifestyle. Black and Hispanic families do have first, second, third and fourth generations living under the same roof; which equates once again to overpopulation, and much unlike what routinely obtains with white families. Covid-19 multiplies faster in overcrowded and overpopulated settings.
Covid-19 cases worldwide now trends at 16 million infected documented cases with experts suggesting actual worldwide cases might be double to triple the above amount; due to underreporting, underrating, insufficient, uncoordinated and inadequate worldwide testing data. The same database confirms 90-93% partial-full recovery rates of those affected and a 7-10% casualty or mortality rate. The above data once again is always moving or evolving and subject to changes almost on a 4-6 weeks basis. These 4-6weeks period coincides with Covid-19 spiking trends and correlates to increasing community infection rates especially when some of us are not following the simple recommended stuff like mandatory public face covering, avoiding large gatherings, hand washing and social distancing.
Political, regional and extremist religious ideology compounds all the above in some ways or fashion. So also is the individual versus human rights conundrum which painfully translates to giving more power to Covid-19 because as long as we battle amongst ourselves, Covid-19 grows more in the dark.
Dr Tal Zaks, Chief Medical Officer at Moderna insinuates that the introduction of Covid-19 vaccines with some potential herd immunity protection and good health practices will start to mitigate Covid-19 beginning with the next covid-19 season. We don’t yet know the duration of antibodies effectiveness; it seems the longer your exposure to this contagion and duration of recovery; the longer your antibodies last 2-6months.
Another logical summation may be that this is ‘mother nature’s’ way of controlling worldwide overpopulation in a world with limited resources. It might take about 2-4years to fully evaluate, digest and comprehend Covid-19. The only reasonable and rational thing to do is practice social isolation, physical distancing, fast containment model response (like was done with Ebola), good and consistent hygiene practices, the use of reliable and regular PPEs and avoiding large crowds. The other two things that will combat or mitigate Covid-19 are herd immunity and vaccines when available.
As for protection from vaccines, the flu vaccines annually only provide 45-65% protection to recipients, and only the measles vaccines has been proven to provide 90% plus protection to recipients from the first dose and goes up to 95% with two doses.. Thank God, these vaccines are not like condoms; imagine what happens if a condom is only 45-65% effective. Considering Covid-19 family patterns, it makes sense to expect similar 45-65% protection or less with the Covid-19 pending vaccines and since Covid-19 is evolving on a weekly basis, my money is on less that 45% vaccines effectiveness at the onset as a pragmatist.
Herd immunity is more like nature’s back-up plan for the ‘survival of the fittest,’ and takes an average 1-3 seasons of exposure to a specific contagion like the corona family to achieve maximum antibodies that guarantee immune response protection for the majority of the population. And all of this leaves us then with the sad truth that we have now learned from the last epidemic (Ebola) and ongoing pandemic (Covid-19): it takes a unified and coordinated federal and international containment strategic mandate to combat such disease outbreak.